Three Predictions: Michigan’s finish, decommits in Florida, Vernell Brown

Rivals national recruiting analyst John Garcia Jr. has a trio of predictions about Michigan finishing strong in Florida, decommits on the way for several Sunshine State programs and the ultimate future of Vernell Brown III.

The defending champs aren’t poised to repeat on the field, but the new staff in Ann Arbor is stretching its recruiting footprint well in the meantime. Michigan has attracted a national class and it includes several strongholds in the state of Florida.

Top-100 quarterback Carter Smith is committed, IMG Academy’s Donovan Johnson and Kayden Strayhorn are already on board. So is Orlando-area star and NFL legacy Ivan Taylor despite Alabama‘s consistent push.

The Wolverines are far from done, too, with some critical trips being lined up. Senior riser and Georgia Tech commitment Derry Norris just took an official visit to Ann Arbor and another senior set to move up the ranks — linebacker Cam White — will make an official visit this weekend. The Tampa native, who decommitted from UCF on Monday, will be in town for the very first time. Michigan is also working on flipping big pass-catcher and NC State commitment Jamar Browder and is taking a swing at five-star linebacker Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng, among others.

The 2026 class already has a maize and blue splash with elite QB Brady Hart leading the charge to bring more Sunshine State natives to Ann Arbor.

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In college football recruiting, there is a notion that the on-field product doesn’t impact success on the trail as much — but the 2024 season has begun to prove otherwise in the state of Florida. Miami is running away with on-field success and recruiting is following suit as Mario Cristobal and company are likely to secure a third-straight top-10 class. Otherwise, it’s decommitment and flip season in the state.

Florida has already seen attrition to its commitment list and more is certainly on the way. Defensive lineman Jeramiah McCloud (Georgia) and 2026 defensive back Jaelen Waters (Miami) are two to watch but there could be others.

Florida State has already lost all three receivers it had committed in the class and now programs are charging for the trenches with offensive lineman Solomon Thomas (Miami, LSU, Florida) and Kevin Wynn (Georgia, South Carolina, USC), among many others.

UCF may be the program to see the most attrition in the short term, following defensive lineman Christian Hudson (Colorado), receiver Carl Jenkins and linebacker Cam White decommitting in the last week or so. As of Monday evening, the highest-ranked Knight pledge in Jayvan Boggs has lined up a Florida State official visit. Fellow four-stars Tony Williams and Waden Charles have suitors outside of Orlando as do Miami-based twins Darryl and Mandrell Desir.

Vernell Brown III, an in-state legacy prospect, worked his due diligence on the trail before picking Florida this summer and he hasn’t wavered despite the constant rumors surrounding the future of Billy Napier‘s staff. Even as Florida readies for its toughest stretch of the 2024 season, the status of the pledge has yet to change. There haven’t even been reports of potential trips to other programs, though many continue to push for the Orlando (Fla.) Jones star.

Should there be a program to keep an eye on, especially optically, of course Miami comes to mind after pushing for his commitment and finishing as a finalist back in the summer. His prep QB, Dereon Coleman, is committed to the program and is also an active recruiter, but it’s going to take more than peer recruiting to flip the dynamic talent.

Rivals sources say even if/when there is a coaching change in town, there won’t be a knee-jerk reaction from the senior.