Michael Chandler, Charles Oliveira head down different paths after UFC 309

Rarely can you say a fight featuring a massive shift in momentum in the final round played out as anticipated, but when the principals involved are Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler, it feels appropriate.

The duo met in the UFC 309 co-main event, facing one another for a second time. Their first encounter took place more than three years ago at UFC 262, with a lightweight championship hanging in the balance. Chandler started well and felt moments away from claiming victory and the vacant title in the first, only for Oliveira to survive and put him away 19 seconds into the second round.

Oliveira followed it up by defeating Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, rebounding from losing the title to Islam Makhachev with a stoppage win over Beneil Dariush before dropping a close decision to Arman Tsarukyan earlier this year.

Chandler lost entertaining fights to Gaethje and Poirier, with a finish of Tony Ferguson in between, then spent the better part of the previous two years waiting for a bout with Conor McGregor that never materialized.

Saturday in New York City, it was divisional standing and directional clarity that was on the line, and their true-to-form battle in the penultimate bout of the evening reiterated what we knew going in, and who they are going forward.

For the first four rounds, Oliveira was dominant, out-striking Chandler on the feet before dragging him to the canvas and controlling him on the ground for long stretches, forcing him to defend against submission attempts. With nothing to lose in the fifth and Oliveira starting to fade, Chandler went hunting for a finish, hurting the Brazilian and emptying the gas tank before once again getting his back taken.

Even then, “Iron Mike” clambered to his feet wearing Oliveira as a backpack, hurtling them to the canvas with a thud, much to the delight of the crowd.

“Do Bronx” earned the unanimous decision win, while Chandler earned more respect, and both affirmed where they stand in the division and made it clear what kind of company they’ll keep going forward in their respective careers.

In largely dominating Chandler, Oliveira made it abundantly clear he remains in the thick of the chase in the 155-pound weight class. He entered the contest stationed at No. 2 in the rankings, behind only the last two men to best him, the champion Makhachev and the No. 1 contender Tsarukyan, and will remain there when the rankings update early next week.

Against most anyone else, several of the shots Oliveira landed on Chandler or the multiple instances where he took the back and worked to dominant positions would result in a finish; he simply was sharing the Octagon with an indefatigable opponent. Because there was a momentary flash of hope for Chandler in the fifth, people will lose sight of how one-sided this was for the first 20 minutes and that the former champion closed out the fight having returned to Chandler’s back, but it’s those moments that make it abundantly clear that the beloved 35-year-old is still very much a threat in the lightweight division.

At this moment, there are options available to him in terms of what comes next.

The most likely — and least fun — path is to wait for a championship opportunity against the winner of the impending title bout between Makhachev and Tsarukyan, which has yet to be announced but is assumed to be taking place in the opening quarter of next year. He’d be looking for redemption in each matchup and the “can he reclaim the title?” narrative is an easy hook for a high profile pay-per-view main event.

If we’re looking for a fun way to stay active, a bout with Dan Hooker fits from a divisional standpoint, as the New Zealander has earned three straight wins since his one-off return to featherweight in 2022, most recently besting Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 305. Hustling back to occupy the co-main event slot when the UFC heads to Perth in February might be asking too much of Oliveira but adding that all-action scrap to an April or May card would be an absolute home run.

And if we really want to maximize the good times, how about a rematch with Max Holloway for the BMF title?

The two fought in one of the most random and anticlimactic main events in UFC history nearly a decade ago, with the Hawaiian getting a 99-second stoppage win over the Brazilian due to an esophagus injury in the headlining bout of the UFC’s one and only trip to Regina.

It was a Sunday show too, which only adds to the weirdness. Yes, I was there.

Holloway may be coming off a stoppage loss to Ilia Topuira, but he laid out Gaethje in April at UFC 300 and has declared his future is at lightweight. With both needing some time to recover from their recent outings, I could easily see this fight being featured as the co-main or featured bout on this summer’s International Fight Week pay-per-view in Las Vegas, with the winner having a clear claim to a championship opportunity in the back half of the year.

As I said, my initial feeling is that Oliveira will opt to wait for the Makhachev-Tsarukyan winner rather than risk what could be his final shot at challenging for lightweight gold to run it back with Holloway or roll the dice against Hooker, and that is without question the correct business decision and career move… even if I’d much rather see him take on either of those two guys in the first half of 2025.

Chandler is perhaps the best 2-4 fighter in UFC history. Every time he goes in there and gives every ounce of himself to entertain the masses and chase glory, I can’t help but wonder how he would have done and what the lightweight division would have looked like had he made the move from Bellator sooner than he ultimately did.

The Kill Cliff FC rep has a bottomless reserve of heart and grit, and while he’s lost twice as many fights as he’s won inside the Octagon, it’s certainly a case of “not all losses are created equal.” Chandler has landed on the wrong side of the results in two fights with Oliveira, both of which were captivating the whole way through, as well as a Fight of the Year encounter with Gaethje and a contentious clash with Poirier, both of which also took place at MSG.

You can argue that he has prioritized entertaining over winning since signing with the UFC, pointing to his decision-making in his bout with Gaethje and constantly taking incredibly tough fights, but is there anyone that is upset with him making that decision? 

The weight of wins and losses have been in steady decline for the last couple years in this sport, with action and entertainment becoming the top priority, and Chandler has simply leaned all the way in, turning himself into a must-see fighter that is always going to be in the mix for a marquee assignment because win or lose, you know he is going to go out there and put on a show every time he makes the walk.

Falling to Oliveira likely means his road to another championship opportunity is closed, but his callout of Conor McGregor was perfect, even if it might be a little hopeful.

He spent well over a year waiting for the former two-division champion to be ready to go, only to have the fight scrapped in June when the Irishman suffered a broken toe. McGregor constantly yaps (digitally at least) about wanting to return and how he’s still capable of slapping everyone, always, and if he is intent on returning, it unquestionably should be against Chandler.

There is nothing else at the moment that makes sense for Chandler and putting McGregor into literally any other fight at this stage would potentially squander someone with a little more juice in their respective division, so why not see if you can put the pieces of this oft-delayed grudge match back together one more time and finally make it happen in 2025?

Personally, I don’t think McGregor will ever fight again, but if he does, Chandler needs to be the man standing across from him; he has waited too long and is the perfect dance partner for the bombastic former standout.

The “What If?” piece of this is the bit that really gnaws at me though, as Chandler has given a trio of championship-tier talents tough fights — and sparked Hooker in his debut — since arriving, and he would have been an interesting addition to the title chase had he come over earlier in his career.

Do I think he would have beaten Khabib? Of course not, but it was Gaethje and Poirier (and McGregor) challenging the unbeaten Russian for the title, and it’s safe to assume Chandler would have been right there as well. Maybe he’d have been one of the tests for Makhachev on his way up the divisional ladder, or he would have faced Ferguson a few years earlier than he did, before “El Cucuy” fell off a cliff.

Chandler and Donald Cerrone? Sign me up!

Chandler and Eddie Alvarez one more time, but this time in the UFC? Yes please.

Instead, he spent the last five years of his Bellator career whacking overmatched foes like David Rickels, Brandon Girtz, and Sidney Outlaw, splitting a pair of fights with Brent Primus, and losing to Patricio Pitbull, which is something that happened to pretty well everyone that shared the cage with the Bellator superstar.

As fun as it has been — and it has been undeniably entertaining to watch — imagine how good it could have been if we got “All-Action Iron Mike” in the UFC a little sooner?