Three-Point Stance: QB1 race, LSU playoff odds, SMU recruiting success

Rivals national recruiting analyst Marshall Levenson has thoughts on elite 2025 quarterbacks, an emerging SEC playoff contender and SMU‘s surging efforts on the trail

Potentially the biggest rankings question we will need to flush out before the Rivals250 is finalized come this offseason will be who finishes as the No. 1 quarterback, and in turn, the No. 1 overall prospect in the country. The race is shaping up to be among the primary contenders of Ohio State commit Tavien St. Clair, LSU commit Bryce Underwood and Alabama commit Keelon Russell.

St. Clair took over as the No. 1 prospect in the most recent update prior to the season’s start. He has since had a fantastic senior season to the tune of 1,849 yards, 24 touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 66.7 percent of his passes. The 6-foot-4, 228-pounder has an NFL build and has made a strong case to stick as the No. 1 overall prospect moving forward.

Underwood, a 6-foot-3, 205-pounder, continues to put up big numbers. Earlier this season, the future Tiger entered the record book as the Michigan high school career passing and total touchdowns leader. Despite not appearing in nearly any national camps or competitions, he was in discussion for the No. 1 spot and he will continue to be so.

Russell could very well throw a wrench in this whole discussion. The No. 10 overall prospect has a real argument as having the best season to date in the country, completing 75 percent of his passes for 1,842 yards, 26 touchdowns and just one interception to go along with an undefeated record.

It is unlikely we will see all three in the postseason All-American games, but as of now we will see St. Clair in the All-American Bowl and Russell in the UA All-America game. Those games will likely the deciding factor for who takes the eventual honor as the No. 1 quarterback and overall prospect in the 2025 Rivals250.

When LSU dropped its season opener to USC, it seemed like the Tigers may be in for another disappointing season. However, since the loss, the Tigers have ripped off five-straight wins and are 2-0 in SEC play, including a win over top-10 Ole Miss.

Looking at the rest of its schedule, there is a path for Brian Kelly‘s team to find itself in the playoff picture down the stretch. With six games remaining for the now No. 8-ranked Tigers, there are just two currently ranked opponents on the schedule, one of which will be played in Baton Rouge.

LSU will play Arkansas on the road, top-15 Texas A&M in College Station, top-10 Alabama in Baton Rouge, unranked Florida on the road, unranked Vanderbilt at home and will finish up with unranked Oklahoma at home.

The Aggies and Crimson Tide are of course the most impactful games in that mix, but even if LSU splits those games and took care of the rest, it would finish 10-2 with just one loss in conference play. Even if that does get LSU into the conference championship game, it would be a prime candidate for an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff.

If they did run the table and finish 11-1, there is no question they would make the 12-team playoff. Nussmeier has been elite so far this season, second in the SEC in yards and first in passing touchdowns. A top-25 offense paired with a top-25 red-zone defense, LSU has a strong path ahead given the Tigers stay healthy.

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One of the biggest changes SMU was aiming for with its recent move into the Power Four ranks was increasing its recruiting prominence. Previously, despite being in the middle of one of the country’s deepest recruiting hotbeds, the Mustangs have struggled to put together strong recruiting classes. Times are changing though and SMU is working on putting the final touches on what will be its first top-25 recruiting class in Rivals rankings history, which goes back to 2002.

The Mustangs’ 2025 cycle recruiting class currently ranks No. 20 with 22 total commitments. Looking back, the previously highest-ranked class for SMU was No. 50 in 2011. In the history of the Rivals team rankings, SMU has averaged a class ranking of 78.35.

Among the Mustangs’ 2025 class, there are seven four-star prospects, three of which are in the Rivals250. Quarterback Ty Hawkins (No. 166), offensive tackle Dramodd Odoms (No. 189) and Daylon Singleton (No. 199) headline the class.

The offensive unit that will be brought to Dallas is shaping up to be one of the strongest in the ACC with Hawkins at quarterback, four-star wideouts in Singleton, Jalen Cooper and Carterrious Brown, and the 6-foot-6, 270-pound Odoms at offensive tackle.

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