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It was the New York Liberty‘s game to lose.
Game 1 will be remembered for the Minnesota Lynx‘s rally, their historic comeback down 15 with five minutes to go, a Courtney Williams four-point play with five seconds left to give them their first lead. But on the other side of a comeback is always a collapse.
Past all the enormous clutch plays from the Lynx for all the monumental rallies, it’s important not to look past the scale at which the Liberty let this one slip. Missed shots from their two superstars, sloppy turnovers down the stretch, poor transition defence and more than anything, a missed free throw that would’ve prevented it all from falling apart.
There’s no easy way to stomach a defeat like that one, much less when the franchise’s Finals curse continues to loom overhead as a brutal reminder that New York has yet to reach the summit. It all looked so close, the flag was in their hand, ready to be planted at the peak, but an icy wind blew, symbolic of Minnesota’s cold-heartedness and icy resilience.
It’s only a 1-0 series, but with home-court advantage snatched away and a feeling that, despite all that this team was built for it might not be enough, the Liberty are in dire need of a bounce-back game. Their backs are against the wall. Sunday is do-or-die for New York.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Game 2 of the WNBA Finals.
There’s a new No. 2 in the Association
For years, Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson have been fighting for the crown as the best player in the WNBA. From 2018 to 2024, the two combined for five MVP awards.
Wilson snatched that spot for good this season, and despite Stewart’s MVP in 2023, the Aces superstar has looked like the best two-way player and overall contributor in the league. With Wilson firmly in the top spot, the battle this year felt like it was for No. 2.
That battle is over. The Finals will serve to cement it.
Napheesa Collier, after a scintillating Game 1 of the series, has claimed it. She already looked the part in the regular season, finishing second in MVP voting and winning her first defensive player of the year.
Thursday’s boxscore was impressive enough, as Collier finished with 21 points on 10 for 16 shooting, eight rebounds, two assists, three steals and an absurd six blocks. But what made it more apparent was the eye test on defence, helping turn the Liberty into an inefficient nightmare down the stretch and turning work on one end to buckets on the other.
Her work guarding Stewart was spotless, holding the two-time MVP to 18 points on a horrendous six for 21 from the field. Then, when asked to switch onto the bigger Jonquel Jones, a centre with five inches over her, she showcased some ridiculous flexibility to get around the bigger body and stuff a three-foot layup with 24 seconds to go.
Basketball games are often won by the best player on the court. Thursday night proved that Collier is that player in this series. She’s the puzzle the Liberty will have to solve if they hope to stand a chance on Sunday.
All eyes on Ionescu
Since being taken by the Liberty first overall in 2020, Sabrina Ionescu has been the centrepiece of New York’s rebuild.
She’s made well on that promise so far, racking up three All-Star appearances and two All-WNBA second-team nominations, but she hasn’t done enough to take the Liberty over the hump.
In last year’s Finals against the Aces, she averaged a paltry 9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game while shooting 31.6 per cent from the field and 34.6 per cent from three-point range.
After Game 1, it’s fair to say a pattern is emerging once Ionescu is under the bright lights. Though she finished with a solid 19 points, she was eight for 26 from the field and three for nine from deep and only managed three assists to her three turnovers. She also only scored two points in the fourth quarter and two of her turnovers came in the final five minutes.
With the main battle taking place in the frontcourt between Stewart and Collier, Ionescu will need to stretch the game out to the perimeter, forcing the Lynx to spread out so that Jones can get more favourable one-on-one matchups down low.
New York dominated the regular season on the back of their league-leading 29.0 three-point attempts per game. With all five members of their starting five able to stretch the floor, defences were forced to adapt to a quick-moving, spread attack.
If Ionescu can’t find her rhythm, if she continues to shrink under the bright lights and if she can’t take the pressure from Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams, this series will turn into a slugfest in favour of the Lynx.
Capitalizing is key
If you simply looked at the offensive rebounding numbers, you’d assume the Liberty took Game 1.
They dominated the offensive glass, hustling to a 20-5 margin. But they turned it into only 23 second-chance points and 36 points in the paint. On the other hand, the Lynx turned their five offensive rebounds into 11 second-chance points. That’s 1.15 points per offensive rebound for the Liberty and 2.2 points per offensive rebound for the Lynx. That can’t happen.
The board battle was always going to go in favour of the Liberty, as it should when you have the tandem of Jones and Stewart in the frontcourt. However, a 15-rebound disparity is unlikely to come again.
New York rode those second chances to a big lead in the first quarter, scoring 10 points off offensive rebounds including two three-pointers, but failed to capitalize for the rest of the game, particularly in the fourth when they grabbed six offensive boards but only scored two points off them.
Minnesota, meanwhile, did a great job of finding shooters on the perimeter after grabbing rebounds and did so without even enlisting the help of Canadian Bridget Carleton, one of the best catch-and-shoot snipers in the league.
The Chatham-Kent, Ont., native hit 44.4 per cent of her 5.3 three-pointers per game this season but only took four field goals in Game 1. She was assisted on 98.9 per cent of those looks.
Once the Lynx start hauling in more rebounds and finding shooters like Carleton or McBride, the Liberty won’t have a margin of error when it comes to capitalizing on second chances.
The Liberty have the size advantage and they have the shooters to contend with Minnesota’s. But if they can’t hit those second-chance looks or if they’re sloppy on passes out to the perimeter once they grab the boards, the Lynx will only have more chances to either rally from a deficit like they did in Game 1 or establish a lead earlier as this series moves along.
