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Fact or Fiction: Florida State’s recruiting class will improve this season
National recruiting analyst John Garcia, Jr. is joined by 1standtenFlorida.com‘s Jason Higdon, TheOsceola.com‘s Patrick Burnham and CanesCounty.com‘s Marcus Benjamin to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
1. Reaching seven wins will push Florida administration to retain Billy Napier.
Higdon: FACT. The Florida Gators and Billy Napier are sitting at 3-2 on the year – and now the schedule begins Saturday night with a road trip to Knoxville and a date with the Tennessee Volunteers, who are coming off an upset loss against the Arkansas Razorbacks.
It appears most people believe Napier is already out the door, but is that because they assume Florida won’t win another game? It would stand as the third losing season in a row under his tenure. Remaining opponents Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss are a combined 25-6 on the season. I am not factoring the Florida State record of 1-5 because that is a meaningless game regardless of the outcome (I will explain below).
Imagine a world where the Gators win the next two games at Tennessee and the following weekend back in the Swamp versus Kentucky to improve the record to 5-2 overall. Now, assume the Gators drop the next four games in a row (Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss) to run the record to 5-6 on the year. Could a win over a one-win Florida State team make an impact on the future of the Florida head coach? I am going to go with no.
I believe the Gators need to win the next two games, get to five wins, plus win ONE of the next four games with Georgia, Texas, LSU, or Ole Miss to get to six wins. Then beat Florida State at the end of the year for a magic number of seven wins.
Garcia: FACT. The UCF win was a small statement for Florida in that the players – aware of the noise around Napier — are willing to leave it on the field for their coach. But the schedule moving forward, beginning with the explosive Tennessee Vols this weekend, speaks for itself. It was the focal point of preseason hot seat chatter relative to Napier because of how daunting it looked on paper.
Sure, plenty of ups and downs early this season have impacted the perception of the programs on the schedule, but it’s still a strong enough gauntlet to potentially overcome. Should UF somehow get to that seven-win mark, it would have had to pick off several programs favored against the Gators — and plenty on the road in the process. Five of the opponents are ranked and the three top-10 programs among them each host Florida in the coming weeks.
If the Gators can somehow protect the Swamp with wins before the FSU showdown, they could get above .500 in the end.
MORE NAPIER: Coaches inching off the hot seat
2. Florida State will see an uptick in recruiting as the season continues.
Burnham: FACT. The honest answer is maybe, but my answer for this question is yes. While Florida State’s football season isn’t going well, it is still one of the most historic programs in all of college football. It puts players in the NFL on a regular basis, has multiple national championships, multiple Heisman Trophy winners, Thorpe and Butkus Award winners and much more to its credit. Mike Norvell and his staff still have a brand to sell, and they can show recruits that they have turned this program around in a hurry one time already.
It is important to remember that the portal and free agency are now a part of the college football recruiting picture, and they have been successful in that arena more times than not. They will need to show improvement in the second half of the season to regain momentum in high school recruiting and in the portal before it opens. The Seminole logo still opens more doors than it closes.
Garcia: FACT. Simply put, it has to. Florida State holds just 11 commitments as of this writing, the lowest total in the ACC, and many of those recruits are in the crosshairs of other programs for a potential flip as the slow start on the field has remained a national story. But Norvell and company have a strong board and have recently expanded it at certain positions, like along the offensive line, where it appears as if positive moves are on the way for the program.
Overall, the program has been able to host droves of top recruits despite the 1-5 record, including droves of blue-chippers for the Clemson game last Saturday. Even a former five-star commitment in Javion Hilson was in town, so the groundwork Norvell’s staff initially put in with the senior class hasn’t been overlooked by some of the top Seminole targets to date. Should the on-field product show more life and Norvell get a vote of confidence from the administration, then FSU shouldn’t be sitting down at the No. 40 spot in the national recruiting rankings.
3. Miami’s explosive offense will help the team close well at wide receiver in the 2025 class.
Benjamin: FACT. The decommitment of four-star Malachi Toney is a significant loss for a Miami class that was already thin at wide receiver.
The Hurricanes’ lone 2025 receiver commit, four-star Daylyn Upshsaw, could receive some company at the wide receiver position based on the success of the Miami passing game. Miami is still pushing hard to flip Florida commit Joshua Moore, who said the team’s performance during the season may influence whether he stays committed to the Gators. The Hurricanes are still very interested in adding four-star Gator commit Vernell Brown to the class and Georgia commit Tyler Williams remains on Miami’s radar.
What Miami has going for it is that the Hurricanes have the No. 1 passing offense in the country. So, not only does the undefeated record look pleasing to the eye, but the placement at the top of college football in passing is an excellent selling point to flip targets. Georgia ranks 22nd in pass offense while Florida ranks 35th. Another selling point is that Miami receiver Xavier Restrepo ranks seventh in the country in receiving yards and will very likely represent Miami in the 2025 NFL Draft. The highest Gator or Bulldog is Elijah Badger, who ranks 76th. The production speaks for itself.
Garcia: FICTION. It depends on how we define success. If it means a large wide receiver haul filled with Rivals250 recruits, it may be too ambitious for The U at this point. Toney’s decommitment, as a local star who had been pledged for so long, was a bit of a shocker last week. It leaves Upshaw as the sole receiver pledge, so a successful Miami haul at the position would all but include multiple flipped prospects.
Each of the primary flip targets – from Oregon commitment Dallas Wilson, Florida commitments Vernell Brown III and Joshua Moore as well as Georgia pledge Tyler Williams – are all saying the right things about sticking with the program they originally picked despite a continued Miami push.
The Canes’ passing game has been elite and I’m not ruling out the closing ability of elite recruiter Mario Cristobal or position coach Kevin Beard, but all of the eggs in the flip basket still projects risky with less than two months until National Signing Day.
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