Fact or Fiction: Rivals got the 2024 WR rankings right

Rivals rankings director and national transfer portal analyst Adam Friedman is joined by national recruiting analysts John Garcia Jr. and Marshall Levenson along with Scott Reed of DuckSportsAuthority.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.

Friedman: FACT. It sure looks like our 2024 wide receiver rankings were right. Jeremiah Smith finished the 2024 rankings cycle at No. 1 followed by Ryan Williams and then Cam Coleman. Admittedly, each of these three receivers were talented enough to be the top-ranked receiver in pretty much any other recruiting class so having to put them in order was really challenging.

Jeremiah Smith, with his size, speed, agility, ball skills, and advanced route running skills, had a generational skill set that propelled him to the top of the receiver rankings and No. 1 in the Rivals250. Williams, who reclassified up to the 2024 class, isn’t as physically imposing as Smith or Coleman but his speed, quickness, route running skills, and ball skills were just slightly more effective on the field than Coleman, who was also excellent at the Under Armour All-America Game.

With two and a half years until these three are eligible for the NFL Draft, there is still plenty of time for things to change. Coleman and Auburn will likely have a different quarterback behind center next year so that could drastically change Coleman’s production and possibly how the top three receivers from the 2024 recruiting cycle are viewed.

Garcia: FACT. It’s obviously early in their college journeys, but this was no ordinary wide receiver class. We already thought that during the 2023 season, as Jeremiah Smith cemented his status as the top-ranked wideout and overall recruit in the class. That move was about Smith’s generational status regardless of position, but the floor, build, polish and overall demeanor and/or mentality made his ascent all but a lock at the position and beyond.

Then Ryan Williams reclassified from the 2025 class, where he was also the top-ranked wideout. His youth of course created the benefit of the doubt, but it was still contested by late risers like Cam Coleman and longstanding elites like Micah Hudson and Mike Matthews.

We got to see all of those battling for No. 2 on the same field, against elite competition, at Under Armour All-America Game week. Coleman was spectacular and the others were steady, but Williams may have been the best player on those practice fields at any position with his combination of polish as a route runner and his pure athleticism to make big plays look routine.

So in the historic wideout group that featured four in the top 10 and and a fifth finishing as a five-star, the order of Smith and Williams at the very top was indeed the right call.

Friedman: FICTION. There have been some incredibly talented recruiting classes over the years. The best pound-for-pound recruiting class (aka the class with the highest average star rating per commitment) was USC’s 2013 class, which featured five five-stars and seven four-stars. That average star rating per commit of 4.42 is unlikely to be equaled. The next two best pound-for-pound recruiting classes are USC’s 2007 class (4.22) and USC’s 2018 class (4.21). Georgia’s 2018 class (4.21) is next on the list. That class featured eight five-stars (tied for the most ever) and 26 total signees.

Oregon, with its newest addition of five-star offensive lineman Douglas Utu, currently has 15 commitments and four of them are five-star prospects. The Duck currently have an average star rating per commit of 4.13, which would be good enough for sixth-best all-time. It would be a stretch to see Oregon break into the top five, let alone jump up to No. 1. There just aren’t many five- or four-star prospects let for Oregon to pursue that could push them up this list.

Reed: FICTION. I am going to go with fiction – but on a technicality highlighted below. The highest ranked class Oregon has ever signed according to Rivals was the 2021 class which was ranked as the No. 3 class in the nation. That class was highlighted by five-star signees Kingsley Suamataia and Ty Thompson.

The 2025 class already has four five-star commits with a fifth commit in five-star territory. From an average star rating, the current class (4.13 average) already surpasses the 2021 (3.91 average) class in just about every way except for two: they are not ranked as high nationally thanks to just 15 total commitments and the average weight per average star rating is slightly lower.

Because I expect that the 2025 class will be smaller overall, for now I am going to say that the 2021 class has a better ‘pound for pound’ average star rating, but if we look at just the top 15 recruits from each class, the 2021 class has an average star rating of 4.13 while the 2025 class has an average star rating of 4.27 so far. The 2021class had two five-stars – neither of whom made an impact for Oregon with Suamataia leaving for BYU after his freshman season and Thompson sticking it out as a backup for three seasons before moving on to Tulane.

The 2025 class has a little better variety at the top and middle of the class with strengths on the offensive line with Douglas Utu, Alai Kalaniuvalu and Ziyare Addison leading the group while also getting a five-star receiver (Dakorien Moore), defensive back (Trey McNutt) and running back (Jordon Davison) with another receiver (Dallas Wilson) on the cusp of five-star status. The depth of the top 15 for each class favors 2025 what each is lacking, though, is an elite defensive tackle group – which is a difference maker for elite teams.

I do think it is a fact that Oregon will wind up with its best ever average star rating in 2025.

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Friedman: FACT. An impressive offseason on the camp and 7-on-7 circuit saw Byron Baldwin earn a four-star rating. His height, length, footwork and sense of timing made it very difficult for receivers to find any space when matched up with him. Quarterbacks who threw in Bladwin’s direction quickly found he was able to reach throws they didn’t expect. He’s able to turn and run with receivers in man coverage and he has the tools to excel in zone coverage. Baldwin isn’t afraid to play physically in coverage and he’s an effective tackler when offenses try to run his way. The Indiana commit may not be a burner, receivers find it difficult to run away from him on the field. Baldwin’s four-star rating seems accurate at this point but he could find his way into the Rivals250 before all is said and done.

Levenson: FACT. Baldwin is correctly rated as a four-star prospect but after a live evaluation against a powerhouse program in Duncanville as well as film evals in the early weeks of the season, an easy case can be made for the Indiana commit to work his way into the Rivals250. Baldwin stands out in the secondary with an impressively natural feel in coverage to go with adequate speed to remain in phase at all times. He also does an excellent job of not only defending vertically, but has the range and pursuit ability to track across the field and navigate traffic to make a play on a ball carrier. Whether he is at corner or safety, he appears to always keep his eyes up and has the quick twitch muscles to explode and break in any direction he needs.

He provides a versatile skill set, playing to outside, in the slot, as well on top of the defense at times. The natural feel and command in the backend he has displayed makes him an easy candidate to see his stock rise.

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