Fact or Fiction: Jackson Arnold will start again this season for Oklahoma

Rivals national recruiting analyst Marshall Levenson is joined by national recruiting director Adam Gorney, Parker Thune of OUInsider.com and Jefferson Powell of DeathValleyInsider.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.

Powell: FACT. Just don’t be surprised if that offer doesn’t come anytime soon. For whatever reason Brian Kelly and Joe Sloan have a slower process of evaluating, offering and recruiting quarterbacks. It’s not that they aren’t recruiting them, they certainly are. They’re just not as quick to send out those initial offers to quarterbacks like we see from a lot of other schools. But say what you want, it’s panned out in their favor.

Four-star 2024 signee Colin Hurley, who is the first LSU quarterback that Kelly recruited for more than one cycle, wasn’t offered until May 2022. Current commit and 2025 five-star QB Bryce Underwood wasn’t offered until February 2023. They’ll send offers out to a group of their favorite guys and there’s not a question in my mind that Haven will be among that group, I just wouldn’t expect that to happen anytime soon. But yes, once those offers get rolling I’d expect the hometown Baton Rouge kid to be that first call.

Levenson: FACT. It is somewhat surprising LSU has held off this long on offering the five-star quarterback just down the street in Baton Rouge. But given the Tigers have not offered any quarterbacks in the class, there’s not much of a story to read into on why they have not. Haven is an elite talent and the fact he is in their backyard means it will not necessarily be a slam dunk recruitment, but there will be plenty of confidence in reeling him when that decision takes place down the line.

Haven has been on campus numerous times and has great relationships with Brian Kelly, Joe Sloan and most other notable offensive staff that he would be around. LSU has told Haven to be patient on an offer and with time it will come. While there are a handful of other blue-chip arm talents they have connections to in Peyton Houston, Malachi Zeigler, and Colton Nussmeier, it is Haven that seems to be the leader of that race.

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Gorney: FICTION. Anything can happen in the NIL world that has made UNLV look like a circus this week and I still don’t know which side to believe but I have to think the NIL structure is far more detailed and thought out within the highest programs so something like this ridiculous situation won’t happen. As I’m typing this, I am thinking about how the Jaden Rashada debacle happened and I’m convincing myself of the other side because every one of those quarterbacks presumably has a healthy NIL deal in place. If the collective’s money dries up or a player performs poorly and some collective decides to withhold funds then of course it could happen but these instances have been rare.

Levenson: FICTION. While college football is sure to provide drama at every spot it has the chance to, there is actually a likely solution upcoming to fight this kind of situation. Once programs are able to use the revenue sharing to directly pay their players, it will combat any contract confusion and handshake agreements as they simply won’t take place. With Matthew Sluka, it was all hinging on a supposed verbal offer from an assistant coach, which isn’t legal in the first place. Most collectives have legitimate contracts with clauses and securities on both sides, which will be even more strengthened when dished out by the universities themselves.

There is always the potential of collectives looking to pay more on top of the funds paid by the schools, which could bring forth issues, but I foresee a better contract situation under the programs’ leadership.

Thune: FICTION. Once you make a switch the likes of this one, there’s really no going back. Michael Hawkins gave Jackson Arnold a run for his money throughout spring ball and fall camp, but for a variety of reasons, Arnold was always going to get his chance and open the 2024 season as Oklahoma’s starter. He squandered that opportunity pretty decisively through the season’s first four games, and there is plenty of internal belief that Hawkins can help unlock a dimension that hasn’t yet existed in 2024 for Oklahoma’s offense. It’s a lot to put on the shoulders of a true freshman, but there’s confidence that Hawkins is ready to contribute at a high level, and provided he does so, Arnold will be relegated to the pine for the remainder of the campaign.

Levenson: FICTION. If Hawkins shows he is playing even at a competent level, he will remain the guy. But even if he does struggle early, it would be a bad look for Brent Venables and his staff to keep rotating with no success. If he were not happy with Hawkins and returned to Arnold, it would appear that he has no control or direction over the situation. Because Venables has not had the hottest start in his time at Oklahoma, by traditional Sooners’ standards, that is the kind of move that would likely put his name on some hot seat watchlists.

I do believe Hawkins also provides a skillset with his legs that is better suited to combat a struggling Oklahoma offensive line. It is likely we have come to the conclusion of Arnold’s tenure in Norman.

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