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Fact or Fiction: Florida will fire Billy Napier before mid-October
Rivals national recruiting analyst John Garcia Jr. is joined by national analyst Sam Spiegelman, 1stAndTenFlorida.com‘s Jason Higdon and CanesCounty.com‘s Marcus Benjamin to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
1. Billy Napier will not be the head coach for Florida by the time Tennessee comes to town Oct. 12.
Higdon: FACT. This is about as tricky a question to answer as you can imagine. The program’s current state will be challenging to recover from without a coaching change at the top, and the timing of it all is difficult to predict.
What if Florida drops a road game against a Mississippi State team that just got beat by Toledo, 41-17. Mississippi State also lost to Arizona State and beat Eastern Kentucky in the home opener. The Gators are favored by 5.5 points on the road this week and will walk out of Starkville with the win. However, it might not be enough to change the program’s fate.
I believe change is coming; I am not sure it will be in the next three weeks unless the Gators drop one of the next two games. Change is coming to Gainesville, but the million-dollar question is when, and I can’t answer that right now. For the sake of argument, I will end with fact.
Garcia: FACT. It’s long felt like a matter of when and not if the current regime in Gainesville would be gone, so every loss moving forward becomes the next expectation. From the quarterback controversy to a lack of success on the recruiting trail and failing to win against an FBS opponent in nearly one calendar year, the lows being experienced in the Swamp are about as extreme as anyone could have expected in this modern era.
The SEC is bigger and deeper than ever, so it seems like the race to become the first needle-moving job on the open market is to soon be Florida’s gain. There has been levels of speculation on who may be next in town, so the first step feels inevitable every day going forward.
2. LaDamion Guyton will be the first Rivals No. 1 prospect to land at Georgia since Amarius Mims in the 2021 cycle.
Spiegelman: FACT. It’s extremely early in the process for LaDamion Guyton, but it’s easy to like where Georgia is currently positioned with the No. 1 overall player in the Rivals250 for 2027.
The five-star defensive end out of Savannah collected an offer from the in-state Dawgs before he played his first varsity game. He’s since been to Athens on more than seven different occasions. Obviously, there’s a long road to go with powerhouse programs like Tennessee, LSU, South Carolina, Alabama, Florida State, Miami and Auburn are all digging in their heels to get the elite defensive end on campus.
Georgia is trending up for his prep teammate five-star defensive tackle Elijah Griffin and already creating a stir around Guyton. It’s easy to like where the home-state team is positioned early on.
Garcia: FICTION. Georgia is a pillar of blueblood football in the sport, but the Bulldogs haven’t been cleaning up with the in-state elite prospects at the top of the rankings as much as a casual fan would anticipate. Of course it hasn’t hurt the on-field product, but there has been a bit of a trend with the biggest dogs playing college ball elsewhere of late. It’s been four cycles since the top-ranked Peach Stater stayed home to be a Bulldog, when Amarius Mims made the call. He is the only one in his position to do so in the last decade, believe it or not.
We’re in the data business and it’s way too early for Guyton anyway, so we’ll roll with the field for the sake of science.
3. Miami will reach double-digit wins this season.
Benjamin: FACT. Miami has always had talented players on its roster, but in the last 20 years, the Hurricanes needed positional depth or above-average quarterback play to stay relevant in college football, which did not happen.
This year is much different. Not only does Miami have depth at every position based on the talent acquisitions through recruiting and the transfer portal, but the Hurricanes finally have an elite quarterback who will keep them in every game as Cam Ward is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
The team has conveyed that much has yet to be shown on the field regarding the offense’s potential, so we all will stay tuned. To put the lack of elite quarterback play in perspective, Ward has the potential to be the first Hurricanes quarterback selected in the first round since Vinny Testaverde was taken first overall in 1987.
After three weeks, no team on Miami’s schedule scares you, and the Hurricanes have a legit shot to win every game. Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse and its next game against USF will be challenging road trips, but Miami has the talent and experience to come home with victories in all those games. I would be shocked if Miami loses more than two games on its schedule with a healthy Ward under center all season.
Garcia: FACT. The combination of Miami’s league-best recruiting under Mario Cristobal, an elite quarterback and a very weak schedule compared to others in the national top 10 — and it would be a near upset if the Hurricanes fail to reach 10 wins this season.
The biggest difference beyond the game’s most important position for this team is the depth in the trenches. Miami looks strong up front at all times, and its defense is playing elite ball at the moment, allowing single digit points per contest through the first three games.
Of course the high profile and winning expectation is rather new for the current roster, so getting the best shot and some trap game settings like road trips to Cal, Louisville and Georgia Tech could eventually get interesting.
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