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Fact or Fiction: Wisconsin has a chance to upset Alabama
Rivals national recruiting analyst Greg Smith is joined by Jon McNamara of BadgerBlitz.com, Josh Henschke of TheMaizeandBlueReview.com and Eric Hansen InsideNDSports.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
1.
Wisconsin has a better chance to upset Alabama than Las Vegas thinks.
McNamara: FICTION. Wisconsin failed to cover the spread as favorites against both Western Michigan and South Dakota. This time the Badgers are on the other side of the betting line as 15.5 dogs against visiting Alabama. And while that seems like a high number for the 2-0 home team, Wisconsin has been uneven, at best, in its first two contests. According to TruMedia, Wisconsin ranks 133rd out of 134 FBS teams in explosive play rate (runs of at least 12 yards and passes of 16 or more). That likely won’t translate well against an Alabama defense full of former four- and five-star players.
On the defensive side of the ball, Wisconsin is strong in the secondary but weak up front. The Tide, currently No. 13 in the country in rushing offense, should be in line for a big day on the ground. This feels like a game where Alabama pulls away comfortably in the fourth quarter and puts any hopes of an upset bid to bed shortly after “Jump Around”.
Smith: FACT. This feels weird to go against the numbers here since the Badgers did not cover against Western Michigan and South Dakota. But the trends have to change at some point. Wisconsin has not played well to start the season despite winning both games. But powered by a strong running game, the Badgers will keep this game closer than expected.
Madison will be fired up for this big-time matchup. That’ll help the Badgers, too. I don’t think the Badgers win the game but I do see a path to them covering the 15.5-point spread.
2. Sherrone Moore should make the switch from Davis Warren.
Henschke: FICTION. I don’t think Davis Warren has been the issue here, as there are other root causes as to why Michigan’s offense has struggled. The Wolverines need more out of their offensive line to keep Warren upright and allow the running game to get back to its bread and butter. Making the switch is an unnecessary rocking the boat move that should not be done out of desperation. Only two games into the year, and after a humbling loss to a very good Texas team, things aren’t close to an entire season write-off just yet.
Smith: FICTION. Even though Warren is not the top issue with the Michigan program, he isn’t exactly the solution either. Warren has 322 passing yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s not setting the world on fire but the problem is bigger than Warren. The Wolverines aren’t in a position to make the switch to a different quarterback on the roster because there currently isn’t one better positioned to lead the team.
Last year’s prized recruit Jadyn Davis isn’t ready yet, which doesn’t doom his future. However it’s pretty clear already that Michigan needs to go hard into the portal this offseason to address the quarterback problem in the program.
3. Notre Dame should stick with Riley Leonard.
Hansen: FACT. It’s a bit like spitting into the wind, given Riley Leonard’s No. 118 standing this week out of 125 statistical qualifiers in the FBS pass-efficiency rankings and Notre Dame’s No. 104 placement in total offense among the NCAA-charted 134 FBS teams. Not to mention the still-percolating rage among the armchair coaches in the Irish fanbase following the team’s 16-14 loss to four-touchdown underdog Northern Illinois on Saturday. But it’s the right move for now.
Junior backup Steve Angeli has been mostly impressive in his career cameos and decidedly so in his lone college start, Notre Dame’s 40-8 waxing of Oregon State last December in the Sun Bowl, after 2023 starter Sam Hartman had opted out. But while Angeli and Leonard might have similar floors at the moment, the Duke transfer still has the perceived higher ceiling. And his new team voting him in late August as the only captain on offense among five elected overall shows head coach Marcus Freeman and his staff aren’t the only ones who think he’s the better QB and leader.
Not that Leonard deserves an unlimited leash forever, but heading into Saturday’s road test at Purdue, the 6-foot-4, 216-pound Fairhope, Ala., product, is the right choice to help the offense evolve behind a very inexperienced offensive line, provided he’s healthy enough to do so.
Smith: FACT. This comes with an asterisk though. As long as Leonard is healthy he should be the starting quarterback of Notre Dame. At this point the transfer gives the Irish the best chance to win games. His stats aren’t great right now but he does manage the game well.
Eventually the Irish will need its quarterback to make more plays to win games. But for now it can get by with a game manager that doesn’t make mistakes while the defense carries the day.
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